Pres. Buhari
By Ebi B Asain
By now, there’s a preponderance of evidence the Arewa Consultative Forum is made up of war mongers who has come to the tragic conclusion that the Nigerian military is their trump card to be used against the south. In line with their military calculations, president Muhammadu Buhari too has decided that the only way the #Avengers of the Niger Delta can be defeated is an all out military onslaught. However, what’s even more tragic about this ill-conceived military adventurism is that it’s fraught with dire consequences. Only a few days ago, the militants gave Buhari the likely scenario as the army applies its Operation Crocodile Smiles in the region.
While Operation Crocodile Smiles is sold as a military solution to the intractable problems of marginalisation in the Niger Delta, the public, the UN and the world at large must be told in no unmistaken terms that OCS is the code word for genocide of the indigenous minority tribes of the Niger Delta by the Islamisation driven agenda of the Sokoto Caliphate. This military operation goes beyond the oil industry under imminent collapse and the loss of feeding-bottle mentality of the north.
According to one Ango Abdullahi and Lawal Kaita of the Arewa Consultative Forum, it is better for Buhari to bomb the militants out of existence than fighting Boko Haram whose ties to ISIS, the number one terrorist organisation is well known. There’s no doubt that as Operation Crocodile Smiles, backed by the best military hardware the army can boast of rolls into the region, a lot of damage would be inflicted on innocent and defenseless communities. Therefore, the world must be prepared to see the collateral damage in this war game intended to reduce entire local villages and towns into smouldering ashes and rubles. The Rwandan massacre and genocide of decades ago could pale in comparison to the ethnic cleansing the world is about to witness in the Niger Delta. The Hague must be ready to call on Buhari and his military generals to answer some basic human rights questions.
President Buhari’s obsession with the militants of the Niger Delta is understandable. The calls for restructuring the country are growing louder and louder. Therefore, he must cow all voices of dissent and clamor for restructuring by taming the #Avengers and other guerilla groups. True, the militants would be foolhardy to go toe-to-toe with the military heavy machinery of harassment and intimidation. But what cannot be denied them is their advantage over the terrain and ability to also bomb the remaining oil facilities out of existence. If Buhari is going to bomb them out of this world, why leave him to enjoy the oil and gas industry thereafter?
Again, it must be reiterated, the ramifications of Operation Crocodile Smiles are multi-faceted. The agenda to annihilate the militants may not end there. First, the military must be prepared to occupy the Niger Delta for the next 100 years because the region doesn’t have a shortage of guerilla and freedom fighters. After the #Avengers, another set of militants will take over the creeks. In the meantime, there will be no Shell BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Elf and others lifting oil freely in the region, and the added cost of doing so may not be too profitable either. The federal government must also be prepared as the guerilla fighters might exploit the situation to kidnap foreigners to push their own agenda. They could also make northerners living in the Niger Delta more of a bigger problem. They could take out their anger on Fulani herdsmen too. In this game, nothing will be off the table.
The above scenario will only highlight the top of the political quagmire in the region. For now, Buhari’s calculation is to limit the military operation within the borders of the Niger Delta. But that would be a grave miscalculation. The theater of war could be extended beyond the crocodile infested swamps and creeks. The guerillas have the means and wherewithal to push the envelope and rock Buhari where he least expected. Of course, the militants could make security in the whole region more tenuous than the army can manage. With every rape of women by soldiers in villages and abuse of their human rights, the #Avengers would be sure to respond in kind. The guerilla war of attrition could be taken to a new level and the hope of the economy recovering anytime soon likely to evaporate into thin air. Welcome to the dividends of Operation Crocodile Smiles!
From the above, it must be stated, the Niger Delta will not be a military walkover by any means. But it seems Buhari has put all his stock in a military shock and awe called, Operation Crocodile Smiles. He is ready to live with winning a few military battles but not the war. In the end, it would be too late to discover that his obsession with military adventurism in the Niger Delta was the most ill-conceived plan since Biafra. Let Buhari not be too cocky about his overconfidence. He must begin to dust off the expansive shelves of his library in the Villa and read the story of David and Goliath. Of course, he could still indulge in hilarious cartoons! Nigerians are already aware their president is used to Fulani herdsmen burning down entire neighborhoods, maiming, raping women and killing innocent civilians with the tacit support of government security agencies. The ethnic cleansing in the Niger Delta is nothing new.
. Ebi B Asain (copyright)
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